It has been estimated by the experts that Pakistani soil has the capacity to make it the largest wheat and rice producing country. Why it has chosen not to become number one wheat and rice producer is not a question of rocket science. It has not been able to throw up able political leadership. The leadership has always been filled either by bureaucracy or the military who were undoubtedly more visionary and more qualified. If
had able leaders, it would have become the top provider to the rest of the world. But now, its common man is unable to buy wheat and rice and make the both ends meet. Pakistan
It was a time to make our country one of the richest because of a golden opportunity to eliminate budgetary shortfalls. It is expected that world wheat prices are about to rise and will raise budget deficits in North Africa and Iran because of spending on bread subsidies, said Abdolreza Abbassian, senior grains economist at the Food and Agriculture Organization. Bloomberg has reported that all of the North African countries on the
Mediterranean Sea as well as provide some sort of subsidy on bread, meaning household food budgets will be shielded from higher prices for now. Wheat futures have risen 49 percent in Iran since June as drought damaged crops in Paris , a supplier to Russia North Africa.
“One way or the other, the governments will have to find the money,” Abbassian said from
yesterday. “This will certainly result in higher budget deficits.” Rome was the world’s largest wheat importer last year, Egypt ranked fifth, and Algeria , Morocco , Iran and Libya are often importers, figures from the International Grains Council show. Tunisia imported 3 million metric tons of wheat in the past year, down from 8.9 million tons a year earlier when it was the second-largest importer, according to IGC data. Iran
“Some are politically unstable countries, and they simply cannot afford” social unrest due to costlier bread, Abbassian said. “Wheat is a large part of the diet. It would greatly impact the urban poor, so they will be very careful.” The FAO is part of the United Nations.
last week announced a ban on all outbound shipments of grain from Aug. 15 until the end of the year to curb domestic prices, which surged because of a failing harvest. Russia
“It’s a very important political staple when you talk about
North Africa and the Middle East,” Abbassian said. “This definitely concerns them more than anybody else.” accounted for 28 percent of global wheat trade last year, according to Abbassian, up from 4 percent a decade ago. The country’s share of wheat exports may fall to half of last year’s number, the economist said. Russia
“It is really mostly a Russian problem,” Abbassian said. “The place where there’s been a huge price increase is
. There the wheat price went up 100 percent. Any country where the wheat price goes up 100 percent has to take drastic measures, and that’s what they thought was in order.” Russia
Importers of Russian wheat in the
Middle East that will have to look elsewhere for supplies after the export ban include , Egypt , Iran , Syria and Jordan , he said. The region’s wheat-buying countries benefited from a good harvest last year that allowed them to build up stocks, Abbassian said. Yemen
“Last year was an exceptionally good year in
North Africa, so most of them have quite good stocks to wait and see and negotiate with other suppliers,” the economist said. “We don’t feel the panic that we experienced in the last round,” he said, referring to a surge in food prices in 2007 and 2008.
The wheat harvest in
North Africa jumped to 20.2 million tons in the 2009-2010 season, from 14.4 million tons a year earlier, according to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Middle Eastern growers produced 37.3 million tons of the grain, up from 32.3 million tons the previous season.
In addition to the “very good” crop last year, North African countries usually limit grain purchases at this time of year as they await the result of the local harvest from June to the middle of August, Abbassian said.
“At this time of year, the countries usually don’t buy a lot of grain because they have their own harvesting,” he said. “It’s usually the low season. It’s a bit of an unusual situation in that regard.”
“The immediate impact is on the government budget,” Abbassian said. “As long as this price increase stays limited to wheat, one could say the problem can be contained. In
North Africa so far, it has been contained.” It may take as much as six months before costs rise for consumers, he said.
The risk to consumers is if higher wheat prices drive up the cost of other food commodities, the economist said. The wheat market will remain “volatile” until the middle of September, when the harvest results and outlook for planting in
and the Russia will be clearer, Abbassian said. “It’s going to be a very unstable month ahead of us,” he said. “The longer it takes to settle it down lower, the greater the chances of creating wider problems because of the spill-over to other commodities.” U.S.